Simulating the response of ecosystem services to the changes in production-living-ecological land use under different scenarios in the ecological economic belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
LI Conghui1(), MA Caihong1(), AN Siwen2, YANG Hang1
1. College of Geographic Sciences and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China 2. Second Topographic Survey Team, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xi’an 710000, China
摘要探究未来不同发展情景下生态系统服务对三生用地变化研究对于国土空间可持续发展与区域系统提升具有重要意义。该文以宁夏沿黄生态经济带为研究区,采用PLUS-Markov(patch-generating land use simulation-Markov)模型对2030年三生用地变化作了自然发展(natural development scenario,NDS)、生态保护(ecological protection scenario,EPS)与城镇发展(urban development scenario,UDS)3种情景模拟,并探究了生态系统服务价值(ecosystem services value,ESV)对三生用地变化的响应特征。结果表明: ①生产用地主要在银川平原与卫宁平原呈现增减变化; 生态用地面积有所减少,以内部结构调整为主,用地结构发生优化,空间上主要集中于沙坡头、白芨滩、银川平原中北部黄河河岸防护林带以及南部的黄土丘陵水土保持区; 生活用地持续增加,以各市区为核心向周边扩张。NDS情景下三生用地变化速率降低,EPS情景下生态用地转出速率降低,UDS情景下生活用地增速、生态和生产用地减速均快于其他情景。②ESV有所提升但不同情景下的提升度存在差异,表现为EPS(11.48×108元)>UDS(2.74×108元)>NDS(1.89×108元)。③ESV值提升区主要以银川平原中北部与卫宁平原、灵盐台地等区域为核心向周边辐射扩张; 不同情景下ESV降低区分布各异。今后研究区的发展应优先生态保护,防止生活用地无序蔓延、确保生产用地的保有量,多方面促进研究区高质量发展。
Exploring the response of ecosystem services to the changes in production-living-ecological land use under different scenarios is critical for the sustainable development of territorial space and the improvement of regional systems. This study investigated the ecological economic belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Based on the PLUS-MarKov model, it simulated the changes in production-living-ecological land use in the ecological economic belt in 2030 under the natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and urban development scenario (UDS). Moreover, it explored the response characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV) to the changes in production-living-ecological land use. The results show that the production land exhibits both increase and decrease in the Yinchuan and Weining plains. The ecological land is somewhat reduced due to internal structural adjustment and optimization, concentrated in Shapotou, Baijitan, the Yellow River riparian shelterbelt in the north-central Yinchuan Plain, and the loess hilly soil and water conservation area in the south. The land for living continues to increase, expanding from urban to surrounding areas. The NDS reveals a reduced rate of changes in the production-living-ecological land use, while the EPS indicates a reduced rate of shift in ecological land use. In contrast, the UDS shows a higher rate of increase in land for living and higher rates of decrease in ecological and production land. The ESV is improved under the three scenarios, specifically in decreased order of EPS (11.48×108 yuan), UDS (2.74×108 yuan), and NDS (1.89×108 yuan). The ESV improvement areas extend primarily from the north-central Yinchuan Plain, Weining Plain, and Lingyan Platform to the peripheries. The ESV reduction areas show varying distributions under different scenarios. To achieve high-quality development, the ecological economic belt should prioritize ecological protection, prevent the disorderly spreading of land for living, and ensure the retention of production land.
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