联合WT-RF的津保高铁沿线地面沉降预测

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2020351

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地面沉降是一种由多种因素引发的区域地面高程下降的环境地质现象,一定程度上会降低高速铁路的平顺性,影响高速铁路安全运营。针对传统随机森林模型对时序数据预测时未考虑数据内部复杂规律问题,该文构建基于小波变换的随机森林模型(wavelet transform-random forest,WT-RF),预测高铁沿线地面沉降信息,评价地面沉降对高铁坡度变化的影响。研究结果表明,2016—2018年,累积地面沉降影响津保高铁坡度变化范围为0~0.16‰; 基于WT-RF模型对地面沉降预测具有较高精度; 2018—2020年,地面沉降仍呈现加重趋势。津保高速铁路沿线坡度变化范围虽然在0~0.2‰之间,但较目前呈现增大趋势。研究发现地面沉降对津保高铁坡度变化具有影响作用,需控制地面沉降,保证高速铁路的安全运营。

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关键词 ：地面沉降, 津保高速铁路, 小波变换, 随机森林

Abstract：

Land subsidence is an environmental geological phenomenon caused by many factors, and it can reduce the smoothness of high-speed railways and thus affects the safe operation of high-speed railways. Traditional rardom forest models do not take account of the internal complexity of time series data in the prediction of time series data. Therefore, this paper constructs a wavelet transform-random forest (WT-RF) prediction model, predicts the land subsidence along the Tianjin-Baoding high-speed railway using the model, and assesses the impacts of land subsidence on the changes in the slope of the high-speed railway. The results are as follows: ① From 2016 to 2018, the change range of the slope of the Tianjin-Baoding high-speed railway was 0~0.16‰ due to the cumulative land subsidence. ② The WT-RF model showed high prediction accuracy of the land subsidence. ③ From 2018 to 2020, the land subsidence still showed an increasing trend, although the change range of the slope along the Tianjin-Baoding high-speed railway was 0~0.2 ‰. It can be concluded that the land subsidence has an impact on the changes in the slope of the Tianjin-Baoding high-speed railway. Therefore, it is necessary to control the land subsidence to ensure the safe operation of the high-speed railway.

Key words： land subsidence Tianjin-Baoding high-speed railway wavelet transform rardom forest

收稿日期: 2020-11-09 出版日期: 2021-12-23

ZTFLH:

TP79

基金资助:国家自然科学基金重点项目“京津冀典型区地下空间演化与地面沉降响应机理研究”(41930109/D010702);国家自然科学基金面上项目“南水进京背景下地面沉降演化机理”(41771455/D010702);北京卓越青年科学家项目(BJJWZYJH01201910028032);北京市自然科学基金面上项目“新水情背景下京津高铁沿线地面沉降演化机制及调控方法”(8182013);北京市优秀人才培养资助青年拔尖个人项目

通讯作者: 宫辉力

作者简介: 周超凡(1990-),女,博士,研究方向为地理信息系统与遥感技术应用。Email: chaofan0322@126.com。

引用本文:

周超凡, 宫辉力, 陈蓓蓓, 雷坤超, 施轹原, 赵宇. 联合WT-RF的津保高铁沿线地面沉降预测[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2021, 33(4): 34-42.
ZHOU Chaofan, GONG Huili, CHEN Beibei, LEI Kunchao, SHI Liyuan, ZHAO Yu. Prediction of land subsidence along Tianjin-Baoding high-speed railway using WT-RF method. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2021, 33(4): 34-42.

链接本文:

https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2020351 或 https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2021/V33/I4/34

Fig.1 津保高速铁路位置及Sentinel-1A数据空间分布示意图

Tab.1 雷达影像信息

Fig.2 整体技术路线

Fig.3 2016—2018年京津冀平原典型区地面沉降空间分布特征

Fig.4 2016—2018年津保高速铁路沿线地面形变速率

Fig.5 2016—2018年津保高铁沿线坡度变化

Fig.6 地面沉降时间序列信息5级小波分解结果

Tab.2 随机森林模型参数

Tab.3 3种模型精度对比

Fig.7 基于WT-RF模型的津保高速铁路沿线地面沉降预测结果

Tab.4 基于WT-RF模型预测的2019年形变结果与InSAR监测信息对比

Fig.8 2016—2019年和2016—2020年津保高铁沿线坡度变化

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