Emerging risk assessment of areas subject to land subsidence in the southern plain of Tianjin, China
YU Hairuo1,2,3(), GONG Huili4,5,6,7,8,9(), CHEN Beibei4,5,6,7,8,9, ZHOU Chaofan4,5,6,7,8,9
1. School of Public Administration, Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005, China 2. Key Laboratory of Surveying and Mapping Science and Geospatial Information Technology of MNR, CASM, Beijing 100039, China 3. State Key Laboratory of Geo-Information Engineering, Xi’an 710054, China 4. College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China 5. The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China 6. Base of the State Key Laboratory of Urban Environmental Process and Digital Modeling, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China 7. Key Laboratory of 3D Information Acquisition and Application, MOE, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China 8. Key Laboratory of Mechanism, Prevention and Mitigation of Land Subsidence, MOE, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China 9. Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
The development of emerging technologies poses some risks while improving urban construction and human life, thus further causing urban safety problems. Tianjin is a coastal city in China, where the coastal sea level keeps increasing, water cycling is changed by the water supply of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and the underground space is subject to development and utilization. These factors, coupled with land subsidence, are all critical for the assessment of emerging risks in Tianjin. This study extracted information on the land subsidence of the southern plain in Tianjin and then predicted the retreat of the natural coastline in Tianjin by combining the sea level rise rate. Accordingly, this study predicted the high-risk factors brought by relative sea level rise in Tianjin using a machine learning method (XGBoost). In addition, this study analyzed the emerging risks caused by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the development and utilization of underground space and revealed the response patterns of the water supply and the construction and operation of subways to the urban safety of Tianjin. The study on the emerging risks brought about by the combination of land subsidence and modern human activities will provide a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation and improve cities’ ability to resist disasters.
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2023, Vol. 35 
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