Dynamic evaluation and prediction of ecological environment vulnerability in the middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River
YAO Kun1(), ZHANG Cunjie2(), HE Lei3, LI Yuxia4, LI Xiaoju5
1. College of Resource and Environment, Xichang University, Xichang 615000, China 2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China 3. School of Software Engineering, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610103, China 4. School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China 5. Engineering College, Universitiy Putra Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur 43400, Malaysia
In order to timely grasp the changes and future development of the ecological environment vulnerability, the authors selected 9 indicators, such as elevation, slope and land use type. Combining RS and GIS technology with AHP-PCA entropy weight model, the authors evaluated the vulnerability of the region in 2000—2018 dynamically, and introduced CA-Markov model for the development of 2021 simulation prediction. The following results have been achieved: ①The overall vulnerability of the region shows gradual decrease in gradient from north to south. ②The degree of vulnerability shows a gradual decrease in the proportion of micro, light, potential, moderate and severe grids. ③CA-Markov is not only suitable for predicting ecological vulnerability in the region, but also with high accuracy, and the proportion of potential, micro, mild, moderate and severe grids in 2021 is 20.18%, 38.02%, 25.71%, 10.96% and 5.13% respectively. ④Throughout the study period, the region’s vulnerability composite index is 2.539 2, 2.501 6, 2.485 6 , 2.460 7 and 2.436 6, respectively, and the 2021 value is 2.428 5. The continuous decrease of this value indicates that the overall ecological environment of the region has been effectively improved and will be in a state of change with sustained and good development. The study effectively reveals the law of dynamic change of ecological environment vulnerability in middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River Basin. With a more scientific analysis of its main drivers and future development, it can be used as an important theoretical reference for the formulation of ecological protection measures in the region.
姚昆, 张存杰, 何磊, 李玉霞, 李小菊. 雅砻江中上游流域生态环境脆弱性动态评价及预测[J]. 国土资源遥感, 2020, 32(4): 199-208.
YAO Kun, ZHANG Cunjie, HE Lei, LI Yuxia, LI Xiaoju. Dynamic evaluation and prediction of ecological environment vulnerability in the middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2020, 32(4): 199-208.
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