Investigating land use and carbon storage changes in Jinan metropolitan circle based on the InVEST-PLUS coupled model
XING Xiaotian1(), WANG Qi1, ZHAO Jiajun1, LIU Pudong1(), ZHANG Jingyuan2
1. School of Surveying and Mapping and Geographic Information, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China 2. School of Art, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
摘要探究土地利用演变及其对碳储量的影响,对于减缓都市圈气候变化、促进绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。该研究在“双碳”目标背景下,结合兴趣点(point of interest,POI)数据并顾及斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(patch-generating land use simulation model,PLUS)进行双约束转移矩阵优化,耦合生态系统服务与权衡的综合评估(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs,InVEST)模型分析山东省济南都市圈2000—2020年土地利用演变规律及其对生态系统碳储量的影响,模拟预测了自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护3种情景下济南都市圈2030年和2060年土地利用变化并估算其生态系统碳储量,分析其碳储量重心迁移情况,并利用参数最优地理探测器探究碳储量空间分异驱动因素。结果表明: ①2000—2020年,济南都市圈耕地、草地和未利用地面积持续减少,林地面积呈波动增加状态,水域、建设用地面积增长迅速; ②2000—2020年,济南都市圈碳储量及土地利用空间格局相似,以黄河主脉为分界线,呈现“东南高,西北低”的分布特征,耕地类型碳储量为研究区碳储量的主要来源,占总碳储量的80%以上; ③多情景模拟下的碳储量均有所降低,主要原因为高碳密度区域耕地转换为低碳密度区域建设用地,其中生态保护情景碳储量最高,2030年总碳储量为4 226.86×106 t,2060年总碳储量为3 967.94×106 t; ④不同发展时期和情景下的济南都市圈碳储量重心均发生一定偏移,发展趋势受土地利用变化影响,重心地带一直处于济南市历城区,说明济南都市圈发展较为全面均衡; ⑤各驱动因子对济南都市圈碳储量空间分布具有明显影响,其中人口密度对碳储量空间分异解释力最大,交互作用下各因子均呈现对碳储量解释力增强的结果。
Exploring land use evolution and its impact on carbon storage is significant for mitigating climate change and promoting green and low-carbon development in metropolitan circles. Under the carbon peak and neutrality goals, this study implemented dual-constraint transition matrix optimization using point-of-interest (POI) data and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, followed by the coupling with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. Based on the InVEST-PLUS coupled model, this study analyzed the land use evolution in the Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020 and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage. Considering natural development, urban development, and ecological conservation as three distinct scenarios, this study simulated and predicted the land use change in the Jinan metropolitan circle in 2030 and 2060. Moreover, this study estimated the corresponding ecosystem carbon storage and analyzed the shift of the carbon storage center. Finally, this study explored the factors driving the spatial differentiation of carbon storage using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the Jinan metropolitan circle saw a continued decrease in arable land, grassland, and unused land; a fluctuating increase in forest land; and a rapid increase in water area and construction land. The carbon storage and land use pattern in the Jinan metropolitan circle showed similar distributions characterized by higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest, with the main body of the Yellow River as the dividing line. The carbon storage in arable land served as the primary source of carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan circle since it represented over 80 % of the total carbon storage. The simulation results reveal decreased carbon storage under the three scenarios, primarily due to the conversion from arable land in high carbon-density areas to construction land in low carbon-density areas. The ecological conservation scenario shows the highest total estimated carbon storage, which is 4 226.86×106 t in 2030 and 3 967.94×106 t in 2060. The carbon storage center in the Jinan metropolitan circle displays a certain shift in different development periods and scenarios due to land use change. However, the carbon storage center remains located in Licheng District, suggesting that the development of the Jinan metropolitan circle is relatively comprehensive and balanced. Various driving factors manifest significant impacts on the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan circle. Notably, population density shows the greatest explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Additionally, the interactions of various factors enhance their explanatory power for carbon storage.
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2025, Vol. 37 
), 王琪1, 赵佳俊1, 刘浦东1(
