Land use change is a primary driver of carbon storage changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating its impact on carbon storage is crucial for optimizing territorial spatial planning and reducing regional carbon emissions. Focusing on Xianyang City，this study analyzed changes in land use and carbon storage over the past two decades （2000—2020） based on corresponding land-use data from 2000，2010，and 2020，using the patch-generating land use simulation （PLUS） and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs （InVEST） models. Moreover，it predicted the distribution of carbon storage in 2030 under four scenarios：natural growth，urban development，cropland protection，and ecological protection. The results indicate that in 2000，2010，and 2020，Xianyang City exhibited carbon storage of 10 047.534×104 t，10 120.754×104 t，and 10 030.210×104 t，respectively，characterized by a pattern of an initial increase followed by a decrease. The conversion of grassland to forest and cropland to construction land was identified as the main factor contributing to the increase and decrease in carbon storage，respectively. Among the four scenarios for 2030，cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios displayed increased carbon storage，while the urban development scenario experienced the most significant decline in carbon storage due to the rapid expansion of construction land. Areas with high carbon storage were mainly concentrated in northern Xianyang，whereas those with low carbon storage were distributed in the southern economic centers. Looking ahead，the future planning in Xianyang should fully consider the impacts of land use on carbon storage，ecological land protection，and restriction of extensive construction land expansion. By doing so，the city can achieve dual optimization of land use and carbon emissions. The findings provide a scientific basis and data reference for enhancing ecosystem carbon sink capacity and optimizing terrestrial spatial planning in Xianyang City.
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2025, Vol. 37 
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