Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of land use in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration using the coupled Markov-FLUS model
CHAI Xinyu1(), WU Xianwen1(), CHEN Xiaohui2, WANG Yu3, ZHAO Xingtao3
1. Guangdong Polytechnic of Industry and Commerce, Guangzhou 510510, China 2. Jilin Institute of Architecture and Technology, Changchun 130114, China 3. Beijing KingGIS Technology Co., Ltd, Beijing100021, China
土地利用需求在不同发展目标定位下有所不同,科学合理调控土地利用变化是实现珠三角城市群土地资源高效利用、生态-发展-经济协调发展的重要基石。该文基于1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年4期珠三角城市群土地利用数据,利用Markov-FLUS(Markov-future land use simulation)模型,基于自然发展情景、生态保护情景和发展优先情景3种情景,预测了2035年珠三角城市群土地利用的数量和空间变化,并比较了3种情景下土地利用变化的差异。在此基础上,对2035年土地利用进行模拟分析,以满足流域不同发展目标导向下的国土空间优化配置。研究结果表明: ①珠三角城市群建设用地利用变化显著,1990—2020年,城市用地、基础设施用地和其他建设用地面积增加了4 945.25 km2,增长了2.8倍。②在3种不同土地利用情景的模拟和预测下,城市土地面积在2035年之前将保持增长趋势,但在发展优先情景下其扩张速度将受到限制。在2种不同土地利用场景的模拟和预测下,到2035年,林地、草地和水域等生态用地面积将保持增长趋势。③1990—2020年,耕地面积减少了3 759.5 km2。在3种不同土地利用情景的模拟预测下,耕地面积将持续减少,但2020—2035年,减少趋势将放缓。在发展情景中,建设用地面积持续增加,耕地面积减少趋势得到一定遏制,草原和林地面积的减少更加严重。实验结果可为珠三角地区今后城市发展、规划、保护提出建议和对策。
Land use demands vary under different development objectives. Scientifically and rationally regulating changes in land use are crucial to efficient land resource utilization and achieving ecological, developmental, and economic coordination in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. Based on the land use data of the urban agglomeration of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 and using the FLUS-Markov model, this study predicted the quantity and spatial changes in land use in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration by 2035 under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and development priority. Furthermore, this study determined the differences in land use change under the three scenarios. Additionally, a simulation analysis of the land use in 2035 was conducted to facilitate the optimized land and space allocation under varying developmental objectives. The results indicate significant changes in the use of construction land in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. From 1990 to 2020, the area of construction land, including urban land and infrastructure land increased by 4 945.25 km2, representing an increase of 2.8 times. The simulations and predictions under three land use scenarios reveal that the urban land area will trend upward by the end of 2034, with its expansion speed being restricted under the ecological protection scenario, while the ecological land, such as forest land, grassland, and water area, will maintain an increasing trend until 2035. From 1990 to 2020, the arable land area decreased by 3 759.5 km2. Under the three land use scenarios, the trend of arable land reduction will continuously decrease until 2035, with the decreasing trends slowing down from 2020 to 2035. Especially, under the development scenario, the area of construction land will continue to increase, the decreasing trend of the arable land area will be somewhat curbed, while the area of grassland and forest land will undergo a more serious decrease. Although dominant factors affecting arable land protection in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration vary across different development stages, the main factor is infrastructure construction such as rail transit roads.
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2025, Vol. 37 
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