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自然资源遥感  2023, Vol. 35 Issue (4): 139-148    DOI: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2022328
  技术应用 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县生态安全评价
刘晓民1,2,3(), 阿木古楞2(), 杨耀天2,3, 刘勇4
1.内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,呼和浩特 010018
2.内蒙古黄河生态研究院,呼和浩特 010020
3.黄河流域内蒙段水资源与水环境综合治理协同创新中心,呼和浩特 010018
4.鄂尔多斯市水利事业发展中心,鄂尔多斯 017000
Ecological security evaluation of counties/banners in the Yellow River basin in Ordos
LIU Xiaomin1,2,3(), AMUGULENG 2(), YANG Yaotian2,3, LIU Yong4
1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
2. Inner Mongolia Yellow River Institute of Ecological Research,Hohhot 010020, China
3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in the Inner Mongolia Reaches of the Yellow River, Hohhot 010018, China
4. Ordos Water Conservancy Development Center, Ordos 017000, China
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摘要 

黄河流域生态环境脆弱,水土流失严重,诊断其生态安全状态及主要驱动因素对促进流域高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究利用鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县2010—2020年社会统计数据和遥感影像数据,选取19项评价指标,利用“压力—状态—响应”(press-state-response,PSR)模型建立黄河流域旗县生态安全评价指标框架,采用灰色关联度模型计算出关键驱动因素,并实现其后未来5 a生态安全演变趋势预测。结果显示: ①2010—2020年鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县达拉特旗、准格尔旗和鄂托克旗生态安全综合评价指数均呈现上升趋势,杭锦旗生态安全指数呈先上升后下降趋势,生态安全等级均波动于临界安全状态,说明该区域流域生态系统安全状况有所改善; ②研究区生态安全动态变化与区域人口数量、城镇化率、草地面积、水资源面积、恩格尔系数和第三产业比重变化有紧密联系; ③各旗县生态安全预测模型结果显示未来5 a该地区生态安全指数均呈现增长趋势。最后基于上述结果提出了相关政策建议,以期为鄂尔多斯市黄河流域生态管理及风险防控提供定量参考和决策依据。

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刘晓民
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关键词 生态安全评价PSR模型驱动因素灰色预测系统    
Abstract

The Yellow River basin has a weak eco-environment due to severe water-soil erosion. Research on ecological security state and primary driving factors holds great significance for the high-quality development of the basin. Based on the social statistical data and remote sensing data of counties/banners in Ordos in the basin from 2010 to 2020, this study established an ecological security index framework for these areas using the pressure-state-response (PSR) model by integrating 19 indices. Furthermore, this study calculated key driving factors using the gray relational model and forecast the ecological security evolution trend in the coming five years. The results are as follows: ① From 2010 to 2020, the comprehensive ecological security index of Dalad, Jungar, and Otog banners all showed a rising trend, while that of Hanggin Banner showed a downward trend following a rise. The ecological security level fluctuated around the critical state during this period. This result suggests an improvement in the ecological security of the basin; ② The dynamic change of ecological security in the study area was closely related to the changes in regional population, urbanization rate, grassland area, water resources area, Engel coefficient and proportion of tertiary industries; (iii) As indicated by the results of the ecological security forecast model of various counties/banners, the ecological security index of this area will show an upward trend in the coming five years. Finally, based on the above results, this study put forward relevant policies and suggestions, with a view to providing a quantitative reference and decision-making basis for ecological management and risk prevention and control of the Yellow River basin in Ordos.

Key wordsecological security assessment    PSR model    driving factors    gray prediction system
收稿日期: 2022-08-10      出版日期: 2023-12-21
ZTFLH:  TP79  
基金资助:“科技兴蒙”行动重点专项项目“十大孔兑流域水-生态-粮食-能源协同提升关键技术研发与集成示范”(2022EEDSKJXM004);内蒙古自治区科技重大专项项目“黄河流域典型退化区生态修复关键技术研究”(2021ZD0008)
通讯作者: 阿木古楞(1995-),女,硕士,主要从事区域可持续发展方面研究。Email: Amuguleng436@163.com
作者简介: 刘晓民(1981-),男,博士,副教授,主要从事水利科学等方面研究。Email: 13204717007@163.com
引用本文:   
刘晓民, 阿木古楞, 杨耀天, 刘勇. 鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县生态安全评价[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2023, 35(4): 139-148.
LIU Xiaomin, AMUGULENG , YANG Yaotian, LIU Yong. Ecological security evaluation of counties/banners in the Yellow River basin in Ordos. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2023, 35(4): 139-148.
链接本文:  
https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2022328      或      https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2023/V35/I4/139
Fig.1  研究区概况图
目标层 准则层 指标层 指标
趋向
意义
生态
安全
综合
指数
压力 人口密度 表征人口对生态安全的压力
城市面积 表征城市化扩建对生态安全的压力
人均耕地面积 表征农业对生态安全的压力
化肥施用强度 表征农业对生态安全的压力
载畜量 表征畜牧业对生态安全的压力
沙地面积 表征植被退化对生态安全的压力
状态 草地覆盖率 表征草地资源覆盖状态
森林覆盖率 表征森林资源覆盖状态
农林牧渔业产值 表征基础产业发展状态
人均粮食量 表征土地资源产量状态
第三产业比重 表征产业结构状态
水资源涵养量 表征水资源状态
响应 农牧民人均纯收入 表征国民经济发展的响应
单位面积农业机械总动力 表征农业现代化的响应
固定资产投资 表征固定资产投入程度的响应
人均GDP 表征区域经济发展的响应
水利环境资金 表征对水利环境保护投入程度的响应
人工造林面积 表征对森林资源保护的响应
种草面积 表征对草地资源保护的响应
Tab.1  生态安全指标的选择
生态安全程度 生态安全指数 警度
等级
特征
不安全 [0,0.2) 重警 生态系统结构及功能被破坏,生态恢复能力及抗干扰能力较差,生态环境问题呈现恶化趋势
较不安全 [0.2,0.4) 高警 生态系统结构及功能不完整,生态问题较多,生态恢复能力及抗干扰能力降低
临界安全 [0.4,0.6) 中警 生态系统结构及功能基本完整,生态系统受外界干扰破坏较小,生态恢复能力及抗干扰能力一般
较安全 [0.6,0.8) 轻警 生态系统结构及功能较完整,生态问题较少,生态恢复能力降低,抗干扰能力较好
安全 [0.8,1] 无警 生态系统结构及功能较完整,生态环境未受干扰破坏,有很强的自我修复和调节能力
Tab.2  生态安全警示等级划分
精度等级 指标临界值
相对误差 均方差比值 小误差概率
一级 0.01 0.35 0.95
二级 0.05 0.50 0.80
三级 0.10 0.65 0.70
四级 0.20 0.80 0.60
Tab.3  灰色预测精度检验等级
Fig.2  黄河流域旗县生态安全评价指标框架及权重
Fig.3  鄂尔多斯市黄河流域各旗县生态安全变化
Fig.4  4个旗县2010—2020年生态安全变化趋势
Fig.5  4个旗县生态安全驱动因素分析
Fig.6  鄂尔多斯市黄河流域旗县安全驱动因素耦合关系
Fig.7  各旗生态安全值模拟及预测
检验指标 相对误差 均方差比 小误差概率
达拉特旗 0.05 0.34 0.90
准格尔旗 0.09 0.38 0.80
鄂托克旗 0.05 0.41 0.90
杭锦旗 0.08 0.50 0.80
Tab.4  灰色预测精度检验
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