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Remote Sensing for Natural Resources    2025, Vol. 37 Issue (3) : 253-264     DOI: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2024065
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Spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang and its response to drought
LU Jiantao1(), ZHENG Jianghua1,2(), PENG Jian3, XIAO Xianghua3, LI Gangyong3, LIU Liang1, WANG Renjun1, ZHANG Jianli3
1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
3. Xinjiang Grassland Station, Urumqi 830049, China
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Abstract  

Global warming has exacerbated drought conditions, posing a significant threat to ecosystem structures and functions. Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability and its response to drought plays a significant role in achieving regional high-quality and sustainable development. With Xinjiang as the study area, this study constructed an assessment index system for ecological vulnerability based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) model. Using methods like local spatial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, slope trend analysis, and Hurst exponent, this study assessed the ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020, followed by future trend prediction. Moreover, this study explored the impacts of drought on ecological vulnerability using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results indicate that the overall ecological vulnerability was relatively high in Xinjiang, with its spatial distribution characterized by significant regional differences and spatial aggregation. The SPEI value showed a downward trend at an average annual rate of 0.093 9, suggesting a significant worsening trend of regional aridification. The area featuring a negative correlation between drought and ecological vulnerability represented 54.1 %, indicating that ecological vulnerability in most areas decreased with improved regional moisture conditions. The stable distribution area of ecological vulnerability constituted 77.8 %, dominated by severely and extremely vulnerable areas. In the future, the majority of Xinjiang (61.3 %) is projected to witness decreased ecological vulnerability and enhanced ecological quality. Overall, the results of this study deepen the understanding of the status and driving mechanism of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang, providing a scientific reference and decision-making basis for enhancing the adaptability of regional ecosystems to environmental changes.
Keywords ecological vulnerability      ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) model      standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)      correlation analysis      future trend prediction     
ZTFLH:  TP79  
Issue Date: 01 July 2025
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Articles by authors
Jiantao LU
Jianghua ZHENG
Jian PENG
Xianghua XIAO
Gangyong LI
Liang LIU
Renjun WANG
Jianli ZHANG
Cite this article:   
Jiantao LU,Jianghua ZHENG,Jian PENG, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang and its response to drought[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(3): 253-264.
URL:  
https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2024065     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2025/V37/I3/253
Fig.1  Schematic diagram of the research area
要素层 指标层 指标性质 权重
生态敏感性 高程
坡度
地形起伏度		 正
正
正		 0.062
0.043
0.027
景观破碎度
土壤侵蚀程度
年均降水量		 正
正
负		 0.085
0.092
0.055
年均气温 负 0.036
生态恢复力 FVC
景观干扰度指数
NPP		 负
正
负		 0.125
0.145
0.130
生态压力度 人均GDP
人口密度
人类足迹数据		 正
正
正		 0.044
0.074
0.082
Tab.1  Assessment index system for ecological vulnerability
等级 取值范围 脆弱性
分类		 恢复力
等级		 生态特征
Ⅰ (0,0.2] 微度脆弱 5级 生态功能完整,抗外界干扰和自我恢复能力强
Ⅱ (0.2,0.4] 轻度脆弱 4级 生态功能较为完善,抗外界干扰和自我恢复能力较强
Ⅲ (0.4,0.6] 中度脆弱 3级 生态功能一般,抗外界干扰和自我恢复能力较弱
Ⅳ (0.6,0.8] 重度脆弱 2级 生态功能部分退化,抗外界干扰和自我恢复能力弱
Ⅴ (0.8,1] 极度脆弱 1级 生态功能严重退化,抗外界干扰和自我恢复能力差
Tab.2  Classification criteria of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang
取值范围 变化趋势
θslope<0,0.5<H<1 持续改善
θslope<0,0<H<0.5 反持续性改善
θslope>0,0.5<H<1 持续恶化
θslope>0,0<H<0.5 反持续性恶化
H=0.5 无法预测
Tab.3  Classification of future trends
Fig.2  Interannual variation of SPEI and M-K mutation test in Xinjiang
Fig.3  Spatial distribution of annual SPEI in Xinjiang
Fig.4  Interannual change trend of EVI and the proportion of vulnerability area during 2000 to 2020
Fig.5  Sanji diagram of ecological vulnerability transfer matrix in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 (unit: 104 km2)
Fig.6  Spatial pattern distribution of ecosystem resilience
Fig.7  Spatial pattern distribution of ecosystem vulnerability
Fig.8  Spatial clustering map of vulnerability index in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020
Fig.9  EVI coefficient of variation and its spatial stability diagram
Fig.10  Correlation coefficient and classification results of significance between SPEI and resilience
Fig.11  Correlation coefficient and classification results of significance between SPEI and EVI
Fig.12  Change rate and future trend of EVI
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