青海东达布逊湖湖泊面积和水量的变化研究

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2024195

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摘要湖泊面积和水量的变化对干旱区生态环境有着重要的影响。该文以青海省格尔木河流域的东达布逊湖为例，基于谷歌地球引擎（Google Earth Engine，GEE）云计算平台和Landsat数据，构建多指标随机森林算法提取1987—2021年的湖泊面积；结合ICESat和CryoSat等激光雷达数据刻画湖泊面积-水位关系，估算湖泊水量变化；并利用ERA5-Land数据和钾盐开采量基于相关性分析和随机森林贡献率计算方法探讨自然因素和人类活动对湖泊的影响程度。结果表明：①湖泊面积在时间上的变化划分为扩张期、萎缩期、恢复期、萎缩期和快速恢复期5个阶段，而在空间上表现出南部萎缩、向西北部扩张的特征；②2003—2021年东达布逊湖水量呈现上升趋势；③气温、冰川冻土融化和太阳辐射是影响湖泊面积的主要因素，其贡献率分别为31.0%，29.4%和15.5%，而在人类活动影响方面，2010年后钾肥的开采是湖泊面积变化的重要诱因；④基于ARIMA模型预测发现，湖泊面积将于2030年减小至302.78 km²。

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	周玉静
	金晓媚
	马靖宣
	李晴

关键词 ：随机森林, 湖泊水量估算, 相关性分析, 湖泊面积预测, 东达布逊湖

Abstract：

Changes in lake area and water volume exert significant impacts on the ecological environment of arid regions. Targeting East Dabuxun Lake，Golmud River Basin，Qinghai Province，this study developed a multi-index random forest algorithm based on the Google Earth Engine （GEE） cloud platform and Landsat imagery to extract the lake area from 1987 to 2021. Then，an area-water level relationship was established using laser altimetry data from ICESat and CryoSat satellites to estimate changes in water volume. Finally，the impacts of natural factors and human activities on the lake were evaluated，using ERA5-Land climate data and records of potash mining，along with correlation analysis and random forest-based contribution assessment. The results indicate that the temporal changes in lake area over time can be divided into five stages：expansion，shrinkage，recovery，re-shrinkage，and rapid recovery. Spatially，the lake exhibited a pattern of shrinkage in the south and expansion towards the northwest. From 2003 to 2021，the water volume of East Dabuxun Lake showed an upward trend. Temperature，glacier and permafrost melting，and solar radiation were identified as the main natural factors influencing lake area，with contribution rates of 31.0%，29.4%，and 15.5%，respectively. In terms of human activities，potash mining emerged as a major driver of lake area changes after 2010. Based on predictions by the auto-regressive moving average model （ARIMA），the lake area is projected to decline to 302.78 km² by 2030.

Key words： random forest lake water volume estimation correlation analysis lake area prediction East Dabuxun Lake

收稿日期: 2024-05-31 出版日期: 2025-10-28

ZTFLH:	TP79
	P64

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目“干旱区大尺度地下水蒸发排泄机理及遥感计算方法研究”(41372250)

通讯作者: 金晓媚（1968-），女，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事生态水文地质与水环境遥感等研究。Email：jinxm@cugb.edu.cn。

作者简介: 周玉静（1999-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事生态水文地质与水环境遥感等研究。Email：zhou19991203@163.com。

引用本文:

周玉静, 金晓媚, 马靖宣, 李晴. 青海东达布逊湖湖泊面积和水量的变化研究[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2025, 37(5): 15-23.
ZHOU Yujing, JIN Xiaomei, MA Jingxuan, LI Qing. Variations in area and water volume of East Dabuxun Lake，Qinghai Province. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(5): 15-23.

链接本文:

https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2024195 或 https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2025/V37/I5/15

Fig.1 格尔木河流域水系分布图

Tab.1 数据信息表

Fig.2 基于GEE云平台计算湖泊面积流程图

Fig.3 1987—2021年湖泊面积M-K分析

Fig.4 湖泊提取结果与验证

Fig.5 不同时期湖泊面积变化情况

Tab.2 各时期湖泊面积变化量及方向

Fig.6 湖泊水量与水位和面积变化对比图

Tab.3 单因素皮尔逊分析

Fig.7 湖泊面积驱动因素

Tab.4 模型比较

Fig.8 湖泊面积预测效果

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