Hazard assessment of potential glacial lake outburst floods in the Yadong River basin based on multisource satellite data

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2023356

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Abstract

In recent years, global warming has caused significant glacier retreats in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, leading to the rapid expansion of glacial lakes and an increased threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Yadong River basin, located in Shigatse, Tibet, hosts a large number of glacial lakes. In 1940, a GLOF from Qiongbixiama Co severely damaged Yadong County 40 km downstream, causing house collapse and infrastructure destruction. Therefore, assessing the hazards of potential GLOSs in the Yadong River basin is vital for protecting the safety of people’s lives and property. This study conducted a survey and assessment of potential GLOFs based on Gaofen satellite data and Landsat remote sensing images. It derived basic elements including glaciers, glacial lakes, and moraines through remote sensing image interpretation. The results show that the Yadong River basin develops 28 glaciers and 228 glacial lakes, covering total areas of 34.03 km² and 7.79 km², respectively. The past 30 years have seen slight retreats of glaciers and slight expansions of glacial lakes. Combined with the elements derived from remote sensing images, the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive assessment were employed to preliminarily assess the hazard of regional glacial lakes, delineating the distribution of potentially hazardous glacial lakes. The assessment results reveal 15 potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the Yadong River basin, including five highly hazardous, eight moderately hazardous, and two slightly hazardous glacial lakes. These lakes are primarily distributed in the northeastern and northwestern high mountain areas in the Yadong River basin.

Keywords glacial lake outburst flood remote sensing hazard assessment Yadong River basin

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Issue Date: 09 May 2025

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	Dengxin ZHU
	Jienan TU
	Haibing SUN
	Zhenjie HAN
	Liqiang TONG
	Zhaocheng GUO
	Jiangkuan YU
	Shuhao YAN
	Peng HE
	Junjie ZHU

Cite this article:

Dengxin ZHU,Jienan TU,Haibing SUN, et al. Hazard assessment of potential glacial lake outburst floods in the Yadong River basin based on multisource satellite data[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(2): 96-107.

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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2023356 OR https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2025/V37/I2/96

Fig.1 Geographic location map of Yadong River basin

Tab.1 Specific information of remote sensing data

Tab.2 Detailed information and source of evaluation elements of glacier lake break disaster

Tab.3 Judgment matrix of glacier lake outburst element

区间	I	II	III
a≤x≤(a+b)/2	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π b - a x - 3 a + b 4$	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π b - a x - 3 a + b 4$	0
(a+b)/2<x≤b	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π b - a 3 a + b 4 - x$	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π b - a 3 a + b 4 - x$	0
b<x≤(b+c)/2	0	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π c - b x - 3 b + c 4$	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π c - b x - 3 b + c 4$
(b+c)/2<x≤c	0	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π c - b 3 b + c 4 - x$	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π c - b 3 b + c 4 - x$
x>c	0	$12 s i n c π 2 x$	$1 - 12 s i n c π 2 x$

Tab.4 The membership function corresponding to the values between regions

Fig.2 Distribution of Yadong River basin and its sub-basins

Fig.3 Distribution of glacier and glacier lake in Yadong River basin

Tab.5 Distribution of glaciers in different basins

Tab.6 Statistics of glacier lakes by basin

Tab.7 Information table of glacier lake in Kangbumaqu basin

Fig.4 Distribution of glacier lakes with different risk levels in Kangbumaqu basin

Tab.8 Information table of glacier lake in Maqu basin

Fig.5 Classification of dangerous ice lakes in Maqu basin

Fig.6 High resolution remote sensing image of Changgangco and its recharge glaciers

Fig.7 Field survey photos of Changgangco

Fig.8 Distribution of Qujia-Naga east water depth variation simulation

Fig.9 Distribution of Qujia-Naga east section water depth simulation

Fig.10 Water depth simulation distribution of citizen zone in Yadong County town and round area

Fig.11 Water depth simulation distribution map of Yadong County town and round area

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