北美洲地表温度数据重建及时空变化分析
Reconstruction of surface temperature data and analysis of spatial and temporal changes in North America
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摘要: 地表温度是反映区域自然环境和气候变化的重要指标,高质量的数据对区域地表温度时空变化研究是非常重要的。北美洲近年来的气候变化较为异常,因此研究分析该区域的地表温度具有较强的意义。文章基于MODIS地表温度数据,结合地面站点、邻近像元和海拔数据重建了北美洲2002—2018年的遥感地表温度数据集,并分析了其17 a的地表温度时空变化。重建的地表温度数据覆盖了所有陆地地表,数据验证表明精度在1 ℃左右。经过分析发现: 北美洲17 a间以平均0.02 ℃/a的速度呈现波动增温趋势并在2016年达到历史峰值,此后2 a里地表温度直线下降,这与厄尔尼诺的影响密切相关; 北美洲春秋两季的增温幅度较大,冬夏两季次之; 阿拉斯加北部地区和加利福尼亚半岛区域近年来的增温趋势极为显著; 植被和大气水汽显著地影响着地表温度的变化,40°N以北植被和大气水汽与地表温度呈正相关变化,40°N以南植被和大气水汽与地表温度呈负相关变化。根据北美洲平均地表温度周期波动的变化趋势以及厄尔尼诺的影响,在一定可靠程度上可以预测未来1~2 a整体地表温度变化趋势。Abstract: Surface temperature is an important indicator that reflects the regional natural environment and climate changes. High-quality data are very valuable for the study of the temporal and spatial changes in regional surface temperature. In recent years, North America has witnessed relatively abnormal climate changes, thus the surface temperature in this region has great study significance. Based on the MODIS surface temperature data, this study reconstructed the remotely sensed surface temperature data set of North America from 2002 to 2018 and analyzed the spatial and temporal changes in surface temperature over the past 17 years. The reconstructed surface temperature data cover all land surfaces of North America and guarantee precision of about 1 ℃. The analysis results are as follows. North America had a fluctuating temperature increase at an average rate of 0.02 ℃/a in the past 17 years. A historical peak in surface temperature increase occurred in 2016, followed by a sharp drop in the following two years, which was closely related to El Nino. In North America, the temperature increase was greater in spring and autumn than in winter and summer. In recent years, northern Alaska and the Baja California peninsula have experienced significant warming. Vegetation and atmospheric water vapor significantly affect the change in surface temperature. Vegetation and atmospheric water vapor are positively correlated with surface temperature in the north of 40°N, while they are negatively correlated in the south of 40°N. The general changing trend of surface temperature in the next 1~2 years can be predicted to a certain degree of reliability according to the periodic fluctuation trend of the average surface temperature in North America and the influence of El Nino.
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