基于多源卫星数据亚东河流域冰湖溃决灾害危险性分析

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2023356

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摘要近年来,随着全球气候变暖,青藏高原冰川消退,导致冰湖迅速扩张,冰湖溃决灾害的威胁日趋严重,位于西藏自治区日喀则市的亚东河流域分布着大量冰湖,1940 年流域内穷比吓玛错溃决对下游40 km外的亚东县城造成严重影响,部分房屋倒塌,基础设施被毁,在该流域开展冰湖溃决危险性评价对于保护人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。针对冰湖溃决灾害的调查评价,基于高分卫星数据和Landsat系列遥感影像,通过遥感解译获取冰川、冰湖、冰碛物等基础要素。结果表明亚东河流域共分布冰川 28 条,总面积为34.03 km²,共分布冰湖 228 个,总面积为7.79 km²,近 30 a来呈冰川小幅退缩、冰湖小幅扩张的趋势。采用层次分析法和模糊综合评判结合遥感提取要素对区域冰湖的危险性进行了初步评价,得到区域危险性冰湖分布情况,评价结果表明亚东河流域共分布潜在危险冰湖15个,其中高危险性冰湖5个、中危险性冰湖8个、低危险性冰湖2个,主要分布在流域的东北部和西北部高山区,为冰湖溃决灾害风险评价提供科学依据。

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	朱登新
	涂杰楠
	孙海冰
	韩振傑
	童立强
	郭兆成
	余江宽
	阎书豪
	贺鹏
	朱俊杰

关键词 ：冰湖溃决灾害, 遥感, 危险性评价, 亚东河流域

Abstract：

In recent years, global warming has caused significant glacier retreats in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, leading to the rapid expansion of glacial lakes and an increased threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Yadong River basin, located in Shigatse, Tibet, hosts a large number of glacial lakes. In 1940, a GLOF from Qiongbixiama Co severely damaged Yadong County 40 km downstream, causing house collapse and infrastructure destruction. Therefore, assessing the hazards of potential GLOSs in the Yadong River basin is vital for protecting the safety of people’s lives and property. This study conducted a survey and assessment of potential GLOFs based on Gaofen satellite data and Landsat remote sensing images. It derived basic elements including glaciers, glacial lakes, and moraines through remote sensing image interpretation. The results show that the Yadong River basin develops 28 glaciers and 228 glacial lakes, covering total areas of 34.03 km² and 7.79 km², respectively. The past 30 years have seen slight retreats of glaciers and slight expansions of glacial lakes. Combined with the elements derived from remote sensing images, the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive assessment were employed to preliminarily assess the hazard of regional glacial lakes, delineating the distribution of potentially hazardous glacial lakes. The assessment results reveal 15 potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the Yadong River basin, including five highly hazardous, eight moderately hazardous, and two slightly hazardous glacial lakes. These lakes are primarily distributed in the northeastern and northwestern high mountain areas in the Yadong River basin.

Key words： glacial lake outburst flood remote sensing hazard assessment Yadong River basin

收稿日期: 2023-11-24 出版日期: 2025-05-09

ZTFLH:

TP79

基金资助:中国地质调查局地质调查项目“青藏高原及周缘地区冰崩冰湖溃决灾害(链)遥感地质调查与评价”(DD20230448);国家重点研发计划项目“广域崩滑灾害隐患综合遥感识别与监测技术”(2021YFC3000402)

通讯作者: 涂杰楠(1982-),男,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事冰川型地质灾害遥感调查与评价。Email: tujienan@outlook.com。

作者简介: 朱登新(1999-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害遥感调查与评价。Email: 2417723749@qq.com。

引用本文:

朱登新, 涂杰楠, 孙海冰, 韩振傑, 童立强, 郭兆成, 余江宽, 阎书豪, 贺鹏, 朱俊杰. 基于多源卫星数据亚东河流域冰湖溃决灾害危险性分析[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2025, 37(2): 96-107.
ZHU Dengxin, TU Jienan, SUN Haibing, HAN Zhenjie, TONG Liqiang, GUO Zhaocheng, YU Jiangkuan, YAN Shuhao, HE Peng, ZHU Junjie. Hazard assessment of potential glacial lake outburst floods in the Yadong River basin based on multisource satellite data. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(2): 96-107.

链接本文:

https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2023356 或 https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2025/V37/I2/96

Fig.1 亚东河流域地理位置示意图

Tab.1 使用遥感数据具体信息

Tab.2 冰湖溃决灾害评价要素详细信息及来源

Tab.3 冰湖溃决要素的判断矩阵

区间	I	II	III
a≤x≤(a+b)/2	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π b - a x - 3 a + b 4$	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π b - a x - 3 a + b 4$	0
(a+b)/2<x≤b	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π b - a 3 a + b 4 - x$	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π b - a 3 a + b 4 - x$	0
b<x≤(b+c)/2	0	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π c - b x - 3 b + c 4$	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π c - b x - 3 b + c 4$
(b+c)/2<x≤c	0	$34 + 14 s i n 2 π c - b 3 b + c 4 - x$	$14 - 14 s i n 2 π c - b 3 b + c 4 - x$
x>c	0	$12 s i n c π 2 x$	$1 - 12 s i n c π 2 x$

Tab.4 各区间值对应的隶属函数

Fig.2 亚东河流域及子流域分布

Fig.3 亚东河流域冰川冰湖分布

Tab.5 不同流域冰川分布情况

Tab.6 按流域统计冰湖数据

Tab.7 康布麻曲流域中冰湖信息

Fig.4 康布麻曲流域不同危险等级冰湖分布

Tab.8 麻曲流域冰湖信息

Fig.5 麻曲流域危险性冰湖分布

Fig.6 昌岗错及其补给冰川高分遥感影像

Fig.7 昌岗错实地踏勘照片

Fig.8 曲加-那嘎东水深变化分布模拟

Fig.9 曲加-那嘎东剖面水深分布模拟

Fig.10 亚东县县城及周边区域居民区水深分布模拟

Fig.11 亚东县县城及周边区域水深分布模拟

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