2000—2020年中国植被时空变化格局及其对气候作用的滞后响应分析

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2024381

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摘要全球气候变化背景下，中国植被生态系统发生了深刻变化。然而，中国不同生态子区、不同历史时期植被生态演变机制如何，有何差异，亟须深入探索。该研究基于归一化植被指数（normalized differential vegetation index，NDVI）数据，采用重心模型、时滞分析、地理探测器和偏相关分析等方法对中国6大生态子区进行时空演变格局及驱动机制的分析。结果表明：①2000—2020年间，中国大陆地区植被覆盖度呈现出自东向西逐渐递减的趋势；②6大生态子区植被覆盖度均呈现增加趋势，其中中南地区增幅（变化斜率）最高，为0.003 9，华东地区增幅（变化斜率）最低，为0.002；③2000—2010年间，植被覆盖等级升高的面积占比为92%，2010—2020年间植被覆盖等级升高的面积占比为71%；④在全国范围内，栽培植被、灌丛与降水滞后性普遍为前1—3月，栽培植被、针叶林与气温滞后性普遍为当前月，阔叶林与气温滞后性普遍为前1—2月，不同地区不同植被类型滞后时间存在异质性；⑤东北、华北、西北、西南地区植被演变主导影响因子均为降水，华东地区植被演变主导影响因子为土地利用和国内生产总值（gross domestic product，GDP），而中南地区植被演变主导影响因子为降水、土地利用。研究成果可为不同生态区植被的修复和保护提供重要的数据支撑。

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关键词 ： NDVI, 植被覆盖度, 时滞效应, 重心, 地理探测器, 中国

Abstract：

Amid global changes，China’s vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound transformations. However，there is an urgent need to thoroughly explore the mechanisms underlying the ecological evolution of vegetation in different ecological subregions and historical periods，as well as their differences. Therefore，based on normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） data，this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation across six major ecological subregions in China and its driving mechanisms using methods such as the gravity center model，lag analysis，geographical detectors，and partial correlation analysis. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020，mainland China witnessed a decreasing trend in vegetation coverage from east to west. Vegetation coverage increased in all six ecological subregions，with the highest increase （slope of change） observed in the south-central part of China （0.003 9） and the lowest in eastern China （0.002）. From 2000 to 2010，regions with increased vegetation coverage accounted for 92%，and this proportion dropped to 71% from 2010 to 2020. Heterogeneous lag times were observed across different vegetation types in varying regions. Specifically，cultivated vegetation and shrubland generally exhibited a 1 to 3-month lag in response to precipitation；cultivated vegetation and coniferous forests presented a lag limited to the current month in relation to temperature，and broadleaf forests generally displayed a 1 to 2-month lag in response to temperature. Precipitation is identified as the dominant factor driving vegetation changes in North China and the northeastern，northwestern，and southwestern parts of China. In eastern China，land use and gross domestic product （GDP） represent the primary driving force behind vegetation change. In the south-central part of China，both precipitation and land use serve as dominant factors. The results of this study can provide significant data support for vegetation restoration and protection in different ecological regions.

Key words： normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） vegetation coverage time-lag effect gravity center geographical detector China

收稿日期: 2024-11-27 出版日期: 2025-10-28

ZTFLH:

TP79

基金资助:河南省科技攻关项目“融合航空影像和激光雷达点云豫西黄河流域切沟监测及体积预测模型研究”(242102321113);河南省高等学校重点科研项目“融合机载Lidar点云和航空影像的豫西黄河流域切沟监测及体积估算模型优化”(24B420001);国家自然科学基金项目“水-土-植耦合新视角下黄河三角洲盐渍化演变机理的跨尺度不变性与差异性研究”(42471329)

通讯作者: 郭兵（1987-），男，博士，教授，主要研究方向为全球变化与土地退化。Email：guobingjl@163.com。

作者简介: 许颖（1986-），女，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为遥感数据处理与应用。Email：y_xu_lidar@huel.edu.cn。

引用本文:

许颖, 张润泽, 郭兵. 2000—2020年中国植被时空变化格局及其对气候作用的滞后响应分析[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2025, 37(5): 254-266.
XU Ying, ZHANG Runze, GUO Bing. Spatiotemporal variations of 2000—2020 vegetation in China and their time-lag responses to climate. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(5): 254-266.

链接本文:

https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2024381 或 https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2025/V37/I5/254

Fig.1 研究区概况（审图号：GS京（2025）1936号）

Tab.1 显著性分级

Fig.2 不同等级NDVI空间分布（审图号：GS京（2025）1936号）

Fig.3 不同区域NDVI年际变化

Fig.4 不同时期不同等级NDVI转移变化（审图号：GS京（2025）1936号）

Fig.5 不同植被类型滞后性空间分布（审图号：GS京（2025）1936号）

Fig.6 不同分区滞后性

Fig.7 交互因子

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