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Remote Sensing for Natural Resources    2022, Vol. 34 Issue (1) : 198-209     DOI: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2021042
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Simulation of land use change in oasis of arid areas based on Landsat images from 1990 to 2019
SONG Qi1(), FENG Chunhui1, MA Ziqiang2, WANG Nan3, JI Wenjun4, PENG Jie1()
1. College of Agriculture, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
2. Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
3. College of Environmental and Resource Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
4. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
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Abstract  

This study aims to explore the land use change and its future development trend in the Aral reclamation area, a typical artificial oasis in the arid region in northwest China and to provide a reference for the regulation and management of land use change in similar areas. After the multi-temporal synthesis of monthly images of each year, annual land use classification maps were obtained using the support vector machine method. Then, the land use change was analyzed from the aspects of area change, type transformation, and spatial dynamic change. Finally, the cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model was used to simulate the land use change in 2050 and 2080, and the sudden changes and their driving factors were explored using the cumulative departure method and the path analysis. The results of this study are as follows. During 1990—2019, the area of arable land, garden land, water bodies, and construction land in the Aral reclamation area showed an increasing trend. Among them, the arable land and garden land increased in area mainly due to the conversion of unused land outside the areas along the Tarim River. By 2080, the unused land in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the reclamation area will be gradually reclaimed. As a result, arable land, garden land, and construction land will significantly increase. The area of various types of land use in the Aral reclamation reached a turning point in 2005, showing a sharp increase in the area of arable land, garden land, and building land. This was mainly driven by total population, gross agricultural product, and cotton prices. It can be concluded that it is necessary to develop policies on the sustainable development of arable land, to strictly control the area of construction land, and to construct a reasonable land use structure in future land development and utilization.
Keywords land use change      dynamic simulation of land space      long time series      driving factors     
ZTFLH:  TP79  
Corresponding Authors: PENG Jie     E-mail: tarimsongqi@163.com;pjzky@163.com
Issue Date: 14 March 2022
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Qi SONG
Chunhui FENG
Ziqiang MA
Nan WANG
Wenjun JI
Jie PENG
Cite this article:   
Qi SONG,Chunhui FENG,Ziqiang MA, et al. Simulation of land use change in oasis of arid areas based on Landsat images from 1990 to 2019[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2022, 34(1): 198-209.
URL:  
https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2021042     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2022/V34/I1/198
Fig.1  Geographic position of study area
Fig.2  Remote sensing data
Fig.3  Multi-temporal remote sensing image synthesis
类型 地表特征 影像特征 影像 照片
耕地 棉地、小麦地、玉米地、高粱地等 浅绿色,形状规则,一般为长条,均匀分布
林草地 胡杨林、草场、柽柳等 黄色或深黄色,形状不规则,一般分布在河流、道路两侧以及偏远地区
园地 苹果地、枣地、葡萄地、香梨地等 黄色,形状相对规则,多呈矩形,有明显边界线,连片分布
水体 河流、沟渠、水库等 白色或浅紫色,形状规则,有明显边界线
建设用地 城镇、学校、广场、工业用地等 灰色或深紫色,形状规则,周边常有规则的行道树,有明显边界线,连片分布
未利用地 湿地、裸石、盐碱地、沙地等 灰色或深紫色,形状不规则,多分布于偏远地区
Tab.1  Classification system and interpretation signs of Alar reclamation area
Fig.4  Number and distribution of sample points for each category
Fig.5  Classification results of different data sources
土地利用类型 Landsat8
(2019年)		 Landsat7
(2010年)		 Landsat5
(1990年)
制图精
度/%		 用户精
度/%		 制图精
度/%		 用户精
度/%		 制图精
度/%		 用户精
度/%
耕地 93.19 90.14 91.30 89.91 90.55 88.43
林草地 87.49 93.47 85.81 93.41 85.14 92.36
园地 76.46 94.52 75.55 93.52 75.22 92.18
水体 84.18 95.65 82.06 93.98 81.36 92.46
建设用地 82.76 82.11 82.58 81.04 81.17 80.17
未利用地 98.27 88.66 98.16 86.74 97.01 85.12
Kappa系数 0.88 0.85 0.82
总体精度/% 90.05 89.82 88.29
Tab.2  Accuracy evaluation of different data sources
Fig.6  Land use change in Alar reclamation area from 1990 to 2019
Fig.7  The area change of land use types in Alar reclamation area from 1990 to 2019
1990年
2019年 耕地 林草地 园地 水体 建设用地 未利用地 合计
耕地 — 14.09 832.59 4.94 0.00 664.57 1 516.19
林草地 0.38 — 0.36 0.58 0.00 4.64 5.97
园地 349.64 8.81 — 15.69 0.00 1 160.44 1 534.58
水体 2.86 6.77 15.84 — 0.00 103.36 128.82
建设用地 16.11 8.60 11.59 0.04 — 1.48 37.82
未利用地 0.00 1.36 0.00 0.00 1.28 — 2.64
合计 368.99 39.63 860.38 21.25 1.28 1 934.48
Tab.3  Transformation matrix of land use types in Alar reclamation area from 1990 to 2019(km2)
Fig.8  Characteristics of land use change in Alar reclamation area in different time periods
Fig.9  Dynamic changes of land use in Alar reclamation area in different time periods
Fig.10  Comparison of real and simulated situation of land use in Alar reclamation area in 2010
预测类别 合计 用户精度/%
真实类别 耕地 林草地 园地 水体 建设用地 未利用地
耕地 54 617 750 923 0 867 2 667 59 824 91.30
林草地 858 182 058 3 536 10 328 1 939 13 453 212 172 85.81
园地 5 272 3 880 65 696 1 062 342 10 701 86 953 75.55
水体 0 5 94 184 256 0 40 170 224 525 82.06
建设用地 0 0 0 0 14 146 2 984 17 130 82.58
未利用地 0 8 189 0 208 161 457 741 466 299 98.16
合计 60 747 194 896 70 249 196 053 17 455 527735 1067 135 —
制图精度/% 89.91 93.41 93.52 93.98 81.04 86.74 — —
Tab.4  The accuracy evaluation of land use simulation in Alar Reclamation Area in 2010
Fig.11  Land use simulation situation of Alar reclamation area in 2050 and 2080
年份 耕地 林草地 园地 水体 建设用地 未利用地
面积/km2 百分
比/%		 面积/km2 百分
比/%		 面积/km2 百分
比/%		 面积/km2 百分
比/%		 面积/km2 百分
比/%		 面积/km2 百分
比/%
2050年 1 679.32 40.90 388.42 9.46 1 285.56 31.31 345.31 8.41 104.29 2.54 303.02 7.38
2080年 1 727.77 42.08 330.94 8.06 1 368.50 33.33 349.82 8.52 207.76 5.06 121.12 2.95
Tab.5  The area change of each land use types of Alar reclamation area in 2050 and 2080
Fig.12  Analysis on the abrupt change of land use type area in Alar reclamation area
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