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Remote Sensing for Natural Resources    2025, Vol. 37 Issue (4) : 118-130     DOI: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2024117
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Investigating land use and carbon storage changes in Jinan metropolitan circle based on the InVEST-PLUS coupled model
XING Xiaotian1(), WANG Qi1, ZHAO Jiajun1, LIU Pudong1(), ZHANG Jingyuan2
1. School of Surveying and Mapping and Geographic Information, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
2. School of Art, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
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Abstract  

Exploring land use evolution and its impact on carbon storage is significant for mitigating climate change and promoting green and low-carbon development in metropolitan circles. Under the carbon peak and neutrality goals, this study implemented dual-constraint transition matrix optimization using point-of-interest (POI) data and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, followed by the coupling with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. Based on the InVEST-PLUS coupled model, this study analyzed the land use evolution in the Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020 and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage. Considering natural development, urban development, and ecological conservation as three distinct scenarios, this study simulated and predicted the land use change in the Jinan metropolitan circle in 2030 and 2060. Moreover, this study estimated the corresponding ecosystem carbon storage and analyzed the shift of the carbon storage center. Finally, this study explored the factors driving the spatial differentiation of carbon storage using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the Jinan metropolitan circle saw a continued decrease in arable land, grassland, and unused land; a fluctuating increase in forest land; and a rapid increase in water area and construction land. The carbon storage and land use pattern in the Jinan metropolitan circle showed similar distributions characterized by higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest, with the main body of the Yellow River as the dividing line. The carbon storage in arable land served as the primary source of carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan circle since it represented over 80 % of the total carbon storage. The simulation results reveal decreased carbon storage under the three scenarios, primarily due to the conversion from arable land in high carbon-density areas to construction land in low carbon-density areas. The ecological conservation scenario shows the highest total estimated carbon storage, which is 4 226.86×106 t in 2030 and 3 967.94×106 t in 2060. The carbon storage center in the Jinan metropolitan circle displays a certain shift in different development periods and scenarios due to land use change. However, the carbon storage center remains located in Licheng District, suggesting that the development of the Jinan metropolitan circle is relatively comprehensive and balanced. Various driving factors manifest significant impacts on the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan circle. Notably, population density shows the greatest explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Additionally, the interactions of various factors enhance their explanatory power for carbon storage.
Keywords land use change      carbon storage      point-of-interest (POI) data      patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model      integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model      optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD)      Jinan metropolitan circle     
ZTFLH:  X826  
Issue Date: 03 September 2025
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Xiaotian XING
Qi WANG
Jiajun ZHAO
Pudong LIU
Jingyuan ZHANG
Cite this article:   
Xiaotian XING,Qi WANG,Jiajun ZHAO, et al. Investigating land use and carbon storage changes in Jinan metropolitan circle based on the InVEST-PLUS coupled model[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(4): 118-130.
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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2024117     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2025/V37/I4/118
Fig.1  Schematic diagram of study area
类型 数据 分辨率 数据来源
土地利
用数据		 土地利用 30 m 中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心(https://www.resdc.cn/)
自然环
境数据		 土壤类型
气温
降水		 1 km 国家地球系统科学数据中心(https://www.geodata.cn/)
高程
坡度		 30 m 地理空间数据云(http://www.gscloud.cn/home)
社会经
济数据		 距政府机构距离
距学校距离
距车站距离
距医院距离
距公园距离		 地理遥感生态网(http://www.gisrs.cn/)
距铁路距离
距高速距离
距国道省道距离		 OpenStreetMap(https://www.openstreetmap.org/)
人口密度
GDP		 1 km 中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心(https://www.resdc.cn/)
夜间灯光数据 500 m
其他
数据		 行政区划 国家基础地理信息中心(http://www.ngcc.cn/)
Tab.1  Data source and description
地类 Cabove Cbelow Csoil Cdead
耕地 5.82 1.16 93.18 0.58
林地 20.15 4.03 127.69 2.02
草地 2.18 0.44 100.00 0.22
水域 0.62 0.12 81.35 0.06
建设用地 0.10 0.02 74.83 0.01
未利用地 0.10 0.02 11.74 0.01
Tab.2  Carbon density values of land types in Jinan metropolitan circle
地类 自然发展情景 城镇发展情景 生态保护情景
耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设
用地		 未利
用地		 耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设
用地		 未利
用地		 耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设
用地		 未利
用地
耕地 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
林地 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
草地 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
水域 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
建设用地 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
未利用地 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Tab.3  Multi-scenario land transfer matrix
Fig.2  Land use change in Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020
地类 2000年 2010年 2020年 面积变化
值/km2		 面积变化
比例/%
面积/km2 比例/% 面积/km2 比例/% 面积/km2 比例/%
耕地 39 360.75 74.57 37 599.50 71.24 35 890.50 68.00 -3 470.25 39.54
林地 2 444.50 4.63 2 420.25 4.59 2 700.00 5.12 255.50 2.91
草地 1 563.25 2.96 1 425.75 2.70 1 061.25 2.01 -502.00 5.72
水域 687.25 1.30 1 152.00 2.18 1 337.25 2.53 650.00 7.41
建设用地 8 257.25 15.64 9 897.50 18.75 11 740.75 22.24 3 483.50 39.69
未利用地 468.50 0.89 286.50 0.54 51.75 0.10 -416.75 4.75
Tab.4  Area and proportion of various areas in Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020
Fig.3  Sankey map of land use transfer in Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020
地类 2000年 2010年 2020年
耕地 3 965.20 3 787.77 3 615.61
林地 376.18 372.45 415.50
草地 160.76 146.62 109.14
水域 56.46 94.64 109.86
建设用地 98.01 117.48 139.36
未利用地 35.12 21.48 3.88
合计 4 691.73 4 540.44 4 393.35
Tab.5  Carbon reserves of urban enclosure types in Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020(106 t)
Fig.4  Distribution of carbon density in Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020
土地利用类型转换 面积/km2 碳储量变
化/106 t		 合计/106 t
转出 转入 转出面积 转入面积
耕地 林地 266.50 14.16 -293.06
草地 247.50 0.52
水域 309.50 -5.75
建设用地 3 397.00 -301.89
未利用地 4.00 -0.10
林地 耕地 280.00 235.50 -12.52 -17.00
草地 20.00 -1.02
水域 0.25 -0.02
建设用地 24.25 -3.44
草地 耕地 769.50 426.00 -0.89 6.34
林地 269.00 13.73
水域 2.25 -0.05
建设用地 70.25 -6.39
未利用地 2.00 -0.06
水域 耕地 94.00 49.25 0.92 -1.92
建设用地 40.00 -2.81
未利用地 4.75 -0.03
建设
用地		 耕地 180.25 30.00 2.67 13.22
水域 149.00 10.47
未利用地 1.25 0.08
未利
用地		 耕地 428.75 13.50 0.35 -5.96
水域 283.00 2.03
建设用地 132.25 -8.34
Tab.6  Changes of carbon reserves caused by land use type transformation in Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020
Fig.5  Spatial distribution and area of land use in Jinan metropolitan circle in 2030 and 2060
Fig.6  Different types of each land use areas under multiple scenes of the Jinan metropolitan circle in 2030 and 2060
Fig.7  Multi-scenario carbon density distribution in Jinan metropolitan area in 2030 and 2060
Fig.8  Different regions of carbon storage under multiple scenarios of the Jinan metropolitan circle in 2030 and 2060
Fig.9  Standard deviation ellipse and migration of center of gravity of carbon reserves in Jinan metropolitan circle
Fig.10  Driver factor discrete case
Fig.11  Interactive detection results
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