Variations in area and water volume of East Dabuxun Lake，Qinghai Province

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2024195

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Abstract

Changes in lake area and water volume exert significant impacts on the ecological environment of arid regions. Targeting East Dabuxun Lake，Golmud River Basin，Qinghai Province，this study developed a multi-index random forest algorithm based on the Google Earth Engine （GEE） cloud platform and Landsat imagery to extract the lake area from 1987 to 2021. Then，an area-water level relationship was established using laser altimetry data from ICESat and CryoSat satellites to estimate changes in water volume. Finally，the impacts of natural factors and human activities on the lake were evaluated，using ERA5-Land climate data and records of potash mining，along with correlation analysis and random forest-based contribution assessment. The results indicate that the temporal changes in lake area over time can be divided into five stages：expansion，shrinkage，recovery，re-shrinkage，and rapid recovery. Spatially，the lake exhibited a pattern of shrinkage in the south and expansion towards the northwest. From 2003 to 2021，the water volume of East Dabuxun Lake showed an upward trend. Temperature，glacier and permafrost melting，and solar radiation were identified as the main natural factors influencing lake area，with contribution rates of 31.0%，29.4%，and 15.5%，respectively. In terms of human activities，potash mining emerged as a major driver of lake area changes after 2010. Based on predictions by the auto-regressive moving average model （ARIMA），the lake area is projected to decline to 302.78 km² by 2030.

Keywords random forest lake water volume estimation correlation analysis lake area prediction East Dabuxun Lake

ZTFLH:	TP79
	P64

Issue Date: 28 October 2025

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	Yujing ZHOU
	Xiaomei JIN
	Jingxuan MA
	Qing LI

Cite this article:

Yujing ZHOU,Xiaomei JIN,Jingxuan MA, et al. Variations in area and water volume of East Dabuxun Lake，Qinghai Province[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(5): 15-23.

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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2024195 OR https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2025/V37/I5/15

Fig.1 Water system distribution of the Golmud River Basin

Tab.1 Data information

Fig.2 Flowchart for calculating lake area based on GEE cloud platform

Fig.3 M-K analysis of lake area variation from 1987 to 2021

Fig.4 Extraction results and validation of lake

Fig.5 Changes of lake area during different periods

Tab.2 The quantity and direction of changes in lake area in different periods

Fig.6 Comparison of changes between water volume and water level，area for the lake

Tab.3 Single factor Pearson analysis

Fig.7 Driving factors of the lake area

Tab.4 Model comparison

Fig.8 Prediction effect of lake area

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