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Remote Sensing for Land & Resources    2020, Vol. 32 Issue (4) : 199-208     DOI: 10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.04.25
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Dynamic evaluation and prediction of ecological environment vulnerability in the middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River
YAO Kun1(), ZHANG Cunjie2(), HE Lei3, LI Yuxia4, LI Xiaoju5
1. College of Resource and Environment, Xichang University, Xichang 615000, China
2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
3. School of Software Engineering, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610103, China
4. School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
5. Engineering College, Universitiy Putra Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur 43400, Malaysia
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Abstract  

In order to timely grasp the changes and future development of the ecological environment vulnerability, the authors selected 9 indicators, such as elevation, slope and land use type. Combining RS and GIS technology with AHP-PCA entropy weight model, the authors evaluated the vulnerability of the region in 2000—2018 dynamically, and introduced CA-Markov model for the development of 2021 simulation prediction. The following results have been achieved: ①The overall vulnerability of the region shows gradual decrease in gradient from north to south. ②The degree of vulnerability shows a gradual decrease in the proportion of micro, light, potential, moderate and severe grids. ③CA-Markov is not only suitable for predicting ecological vulnerability in the region, but also with high accuracy, and the proportion of potential, micro, mild, moderate and severe grids in 2021 is 20.18%, 38.02%, 25.71%, 10.96% and 5.13% respectively. ④Throughout the study period, the region’s vulnerability composite index is 2.539 2, 2.501 6, 2.485 6 , 2.460 7 and 2.436 6, respectively, and the 2021 value is 2.428 5. The continuous decrease of this value indicates that the overall ecological environment of the region has been effectively improved and will be in a state of change with sustained and good development. The study effectively reveals the law of dynamic change of ecological environment vulnerability in middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River Basin. With a more scientific analysis of its main drivers and future development, it can be used as an important theoretical reference for the formulation of ecological protection measures in the region.
Keywords RS      GIS      AHP-PCA entropy model      CA-Markov model      the middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River Basin     
:  TP79  
Corresponding Authors: ZHANG Cunjie     E-mail: jiangshan996@126.com;zhangcj@cma.gov.cn
Issue Date: 23 December 2020
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Kun YAO
Cunjie ZHANG
Lei HE
Yuxia LI
Xiaoju LI
Cite this article:   
Kun YAO,Cunjie ZHANG,Lei HE, et al. Dynamic evaluation and prediction of ecological environment vulnerability in the middle-upper reaches of the Yalong River[J]. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2020, 32(4): 199-208.
URL:  
https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.04.25     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2020/V32/I4/199
Fig.1  Geographical location of the study area
名称及描述 数据来源
雅砻江中上游流域90 m空间分辨率DEM数据 地理空间数据云平台(http: //www.gscloud.cn)
雅砻江中上游流域1∶100万矢量土壤类型数据 中国土壤数据库
2000—2018年研究区及周边气象观测数据 中国气象数据网(http: //data.cma.cn/)
2000—2018年研究区1∶10万土地利用类型矢量数据,分为水田、旱地、有林地和疏林地等22个二级类 中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心(http: //www.resdc.cn)
各年份6—8月的MODIS-NDVI数据,空间分辨率250 m,周期16 d,采用最大化合成获取最终成果数据 NASA
各年份各县的人口和GDP统计数据 《四川省统计年鉴》及各县统计公报等资料
全国1∶10万土壤侵蚀强度等级遥感解译成果矢量数据 国家地球系统科学数据共享平台 (http: //loess.geodata.cn)
Tab.1  Source and description of the basic data for research areas
Fig.2-1  Annual precipitation and average annual temperature spatial interpolation in the basin
Fig.2-2  Annual precipitation and average annual temperature spatial interpolation in the basin
指标 分级
1 2 3 4 5
土壤类型 泥炭土、草甸土、黑毡土和粗骨土 褐土 湖泊、水库、灰褐土、棕壤和棕色针叶林土 寒冻土、沼泽土、石质土和暗棕壤 草毡土
土地利用
类型		 有林地、灌木林地和高度盖度草地 中覆盖度草地、疏林地、沼泽地和旱地 低覆盖度草地、河渠、湖泊、水库坑塘和滩地 城镇用地、农村居民点和其他建设用地 裸岩石质地
Tab.2  Land use and soil type classification in study area
Fig.3-1  Classification of indicators in the study area
Fig.3-2  Classification of indicators in the study area
决策层 方案层 指标层 权重
生态环境脆弱性 土地生态
(0.528 7)		 NDVI 0.307 5
土地利用类型 0.163 4
土壤类型 0.057 9
气候
(0.268 7)		 年降水量 0.089 6
年均气温 0.179 1
地形
(0.134 3)		 高程 0.100 6
坡度 0.033 6
社会
(0.068 3)		 GDP 0.045 5
人口 0.022 8
Tab.3  AHP calculation weight of each index in the study area
指标 W1j 2000年 2005年 2010年 2015年 2018年
W2j Wj W2j Wj W2j Wj W2j Wj W2j Wj
NDVI 0.307 5 0.064 4 0.163 1 0.076 8 0.173 8 0.077 8 0.176 5 0.061 3 0.161 8 0.077 9 0.177 2
土地利用类型 0.163 4 0.091 2 0.141 6 0.118 8 0.157 6 0.098 2 0.144 6 0.087 7 0.141 1 0.096 4 0.143 7
年降水量 0.089 6 0.119 7 0.120 1 0.059 3 0.082 5 0.071 7 0.091 5 0.079 1 0.099 3 0.067 9 0.089 3
DEM 0.100 6 0.060 8 0.090 7 0.094 6 0.110 3 0.084 2 0.105 0 0.058 9 0.090 7 0.082 6 0.104 4
年均气温 0.179 1 0.070 7 0.130 5 0.100 4 0.151 6 0.092 6 0.147 0 0.070 5 0.132 5 0.087 3 0.143 2
土壤类型 0.057 9 0.182 1 0.119 1 0.199 7 0.121 6 0.197 3 0.122 0 0.190 4 0.123 8 0.195 4 0.121 8
坡度 0.033 6 0.167 4 0.087 0 0.193 8 0.091 3 0.198 1 0.093 1 0.195 2 0.095 5 0.198 9 0.093 6
GDP 0.045 5 0.127 1 0.088 2 0.055 9 0.057 1 0.063 8 0.061 5 0.141 7 0.094 7 0.077 7 0.068 1
人口 0.022 8 0.116 6 0.059 8 0.100 7 0.054 2 0.116 4 0.058 8 0.115 1 0.060 4 0.115 8 0.058 8
Tab.4  Weight of indicators in the basin area from 2000 to 2018
Fig.4  Assessment results of ecological environment vulnerability in the middle and upper reaches of Yalong River from 2000 to 2018
等级 2000年 2005年 2010年 2015年 2018年
栅格数 比例/% 栅格数 比例/% 栅格数 比例/% 栅格数 比例/% 栅格数 比例/%
潜在 202 043 18.77 205 514 19.10 205 124 19.06 207 976 19.33 215 774 20.05
微度 395 374 36.74 398 513 37.03 405 941 37.72 413 468 38.42 412 936 38.37
轻度 266 690 24.78 275 921 25.64 273 948 25.46 271 215 25.20 271 778 25.26
中度 120 452 11.19 119 127 11.07 119 614 11.12 117 882 10.95 113 105 10.51
重度 91 576 8.51 77 060 7.16 71 508 6.64 65 594 6.10 62 535 5.81
Tab.5  Ratio of grid number of vulnerable areas at different levels in Yalong River Basin from 2000 to 2018
Fig.5  Simulation results of vulnerability prediction in 2015 and 2021
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