Assessment of the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas based on multi-model comparison: A case study of Huayuan County, Hunan Province

doi:10.6046/zrzyyg.2021382

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Abstract

Frequent disasters continue to plague many rural areas, and the precise identification of the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas is critical to disaster prevention and mitigation. With 232 villages in Huayuan County, Hunan Province as a case study, this study defined the comprehensive disaster risk index (CDSI) and constructed an assessment system reflecting the dynamics of disaster-inducing environment based on the three elements of risk formation stated in the regional disaster system theory. Then, this study investigated the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas by comparing four models, namely the analytic hierarchy process - technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (AHP-TOPSIS), the entropy- TOPSIS, AHP, and the entropy weight method. The conclusions are as follows. The multi-model evaluation results show a positive correlation, with a CDSI ratio of 1:0.877:0.740:0.539. The entropy-TOPSIS model is the optimal model for the assessment of comprehensive disaster risk in the study area. The CDSI of the study area has a Moran’s I value of 0.74, a strong spatial autocorrelation, and spatial distribution characteristics of being high in the west, low in the east, and significant locally. This study deepens the assessment of comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas. It will provide practical experience and a theoretical basis for scientifically guiding rural disaster prevention and mitigation and ensuring the safe implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.

Keywords comprehensive disaster risk rural area safty entropy-TOPSIS disaster prevention and reduction

ZTFLH:	TP79
	TU984

Issue Date: 27 December 2022

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	Fang ZOU
	Yunfei MA
	Yingling HU

Cite this article:

Fang ZOU,Yunfei MA,Yingling HU. Assessment of the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas based on multi-model comparison: A case study of Huayuan County, Hunan Province[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2022, 34(4): 166-174.

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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2021382 OR https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2022/V34/I4/166

Fig.1 Framework of evaluation principle for rural comprehensive disaster

Fig.2 Technical flow chart

准则层	一级指标层	二级指标层	正向化	指标解释及单位
A 致灾因子	A1 自然灾害	A11极端气象灾害 (风雹、干旱、低温冷冻) A12洪涝灾害 A13地质灾害	极大极大极大	反映极端气象灾害频率与分布(历年总和/次) 反映洪涝灾害频率与分布(历年总和/次) 反映地质灾害频率与分布(历年总和/次)
A 致灾因子	A2 人为灾害	A21尾矿库面积 A22火灾 A23空气质量指数	极大极大极大	反映矿污染可能性(实际值/m²) 反映火灾灾害频率与分布(历年总和/次) 反映空气污染状况(实际值/(μg·m^-3))
B 孕灾环境	B1 社会环境	B11户籍人口数 B12户均纯收入 B13流动人口数 B14土地利用	极大极大极大极大	反映户籍人口变化数量(差值/人) 反映乡村居民经济水平(差值/(元/人)) 反映乡村人口流失压力(差值/人) 反映建设用地开发强度(面积差值/m²)
	B2 自然环境	B21坡度 B22土壤类型 B23降雨 B24 NDVI B25水文 B26温度 B27风速	极大极大极大极大极大极大极大	反映地形地貌特征(差值/(°)) 反映地基承灾力大小(分类打分差值/分) 反映洪涝干旱灾害发生可能性(差值/mm) 反映植被覆盖度变化(差值) 反映水域面积变化(水体面积差值/m²) 反映气象灾害发生可能性(差值/℃) 反映年平均风速变化(差值/(m·s^-1))
	B3 防灾能力	B31防灾能力 B32工业产值 B33农业产值 B34工业企业	极小极小极小极小	反映防灾职能体系、检测预警方式、安全防治与实施情况(打分差值/分) 反映工业产业经济水平(差值/元) 反映农业产业经济水平(差值/元) 反映工业企业发展水平(差值/个)
	B4 抗灾能力	B41生命线长度 B42医疗机构在职人数 B43消防设施数 B44潜在应急疏散场地数 B45应急疏散通道长度	极小极小极小极小极小	反映市政管线输送能力(差值/m) 反映主体应对风险的技术水平(差值/人) 反映消防抗灾能力(差值/个) 反映多级应急疏散能力(差值/个) 反映应急疏散能力(差值/m)
C 承灾体	C1 生命财产	C11老龄化人口数 C12就业人口数	极大极大	反映脆弱人群数量(实际值/人) 反映乡村生产主体的数量(实际值/人)
C 承灾体	C2 固定资产	C21交通用地面积 C22房屋建筑面积 C23耕地面积 C24基本农田面积	极大极大极大极大	反映基础设施状况(实际值/m²) 反映居民住房财产情况(实际值/m²) 反映土地生产状况(实际值/m²) 反映保障耕地数量的政策程度(实际值/m²)

Tab.1 Evaluation index system of rural comprehensive disaster

模型	熵权- TOPSIS	AHP	AHP- TOPSIS	熵权法
熵权-TOPSIS	1	0.751^**	0.733^**	0.890^**
AHP	0.75 $1 * * ①$	1	0.972^**	0.664^**
AHP-TOPSIS	0.733^**	0.972^**	1	0.559^**
熵权法	0.890^**	0.664^**	0.559^**	1

Tab.2 Correlation analysis of results of four models

Fig.3 Results of multi-model comparison (partial)

Fig.4 Results of multi-model operation

Fig.5 Rural comprehensive disaster riskgrading in Huayuan County

Fig.6 Spatial autocorrelation analysis of rural comprehensive disaster risk index in Huayuan County

Fig.7 Assessment results of comprehensive disaster risk factors in Huayuan County

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